A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman

June 24, 2008 Ceasefire Broken- Vote in Knesset Tomorrow

The ceasefire in Gaza was broken today when the Islamic Jihad fired four Qassams at Sederot. The Jihad claimed it was responding to the killing of one of its members in the West Bank. Will this result in the complete breakdown of the ceasefire- its not clear . The Hamas desperately wants the ceasefire, but this is the way the previous ceasefires have ended.

What is exactly happening with the agreement with Hezbollah is still not clear. It would seem at the last moment there is significant cold feet within the Israeli government about the deal that had been negotiated, The major issue seems to be the question of Ron Arad. This will be the end of any information on Arad, Both the head of the Mossad and the Shin Bet are against the deal, while the Chief of Staff accepts the concerns of the Mossad, but still supports the deal. It would seem that Olmert has changed his mind a number of times, the latest news is that the agreement will come before the cabinet on Sunday- Of course what government will be in power on Sunday is unclear.

Tomorrow there will be a vote in the Knesset calling for new eletions. It will pass, both the Labor party and Shas will vote for it, Shas because it has not received the increase in child payments that it wants. The labor is fulfilling its threat to call for new elections if Kadima did not announce a primary to replace Olmert. Barak had expected Kadima to do so. In the meantime Olmert has threatened to fire all the labor ministers if they vote for the measure tomorrow. The other members of Kadima are pressuring Olmert not to do so, since that would be the immediate end of the government and maybe the end of Kadima- but who knows maybe Olmert will just bring the temple down on himself