2020 Election Overview

 

 

The 2020 Elections

 

Over twenty candidates competed for the Democratic nomination, among which, former Vice President Joe Biden was simultaneously the front runner and the underdog. Biden was considered the frontrunner, as he consistently polled better against President Trump. However many, especially in the media, considered Biden "yesterday's news". A majority of the Democratic contenders dropped out before the first primary. Biden lost the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, but then won the primary in North Carolina. Biden's North Carolina victory came, thanks to the overwhelming support of the African American community. This win quickly catapulted Biden to a series of successes in primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday, which ultimately guaranteed him the nomination.

National polls showed Biden with a consistent lead over President Donald J. Trump, ranging from 4 points to 12 points. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2020 election was one of the most unconventional in modern American history. Biden did not hold any massive rallies, limiting participation to numbers that would maintain proper social distancing. In contrast, Trump ignored the dangers of the widespread contagion, and held many large-scale rallies in the closing two weeks of his campaign.

The candidates were scheduled to challenge each other in a series of three Presidential debates. The first debate was a fiasco for Trump, who interrupted Biden incessantly. Soon after the first confrontation, Trump was diagnosed with COVID-19. Thanks (most likely to the complement of experimental drugs administered to him), The President swiftly recovered and headed back on the campaign trail within ten days. Trump refused to participate in the second scheduled debate, designed to be in a town hall setting. However, Trump did agree to take part in the third planned debate, which became the second encounter. Held after Trump's recovery from COVID-19, the second was considered a closer contest. While there was no clear agreement regarding the victor, a majority of debate watchers seemed to appreciate Biden's call for unity as his closing message.

The Democrats had a financial advantage during the later stages of the 2020 Presidential campaign, out raising Republicans by a significant margin. Biden's message mostly focused on a series of attacks on the Trump administration's mishandling of the COVID-19, combined with a call to work to bring America together. Trump's message was that Biden would "bring the radical left to power," and the allegation "America would not be safe with the radicals who want socialism."

Trump's strategy of holding massive rallies appeared effective in getting out his base. However, Trump lost the suburb vote, which have been key to Republican victories in the past decades. Biden was able to mobilize the minority communities in most parts of the US, which propelled him to surprise victories in both Georgia and Arizona.

Nevertheless, Biden did not do as well as polls had projected, seemingly the result of a larger than expected turnout for Trump. The 2020 race had the highest turnout for a Presidential election in one hundred years. Both Trump and Biden turned out record numbers of voters. Without any serious third party candidates (as there had been in 2016), Biden won a decisive victory in the popular vote, defeating Trump by over 7 million votes.

Regarding the 2020 election, one last matter should be noted. Due to the Coronavirus pandemic, most states allowed mail-in voting, many for the first time. Democrats who, by-and-large took the pandemic more seriously than Republicans, chose to vote overwhelmingly by mail. Thus, in states that did not allow mail-in votes to be processed until election day, the initial returns favored Trump; and only after all of the legal mail-in ballots were counted did that change. Therefore, it was not until November 7th (four days after election day), when it became clear Biden had won Pennsylvania (and as a result, more than 270 electoral votes), that networks ultimately called the election in favor of Biden.

Trump never conceded the election, and claimed to the end that the election had been "stolen". He called for a rally in Washington, on January 6th, 2021, the day Congress was to certify the electoral college results. In a considerable measure due to Trump's incitement, those demonstrators turned into rioters and stormed the Capitol to delay the certification by several hours and to ransack offices. Five people, including a police officer, were killed.

 

 

 

state Biden Trump Other Biden Trump Other
U.S. Total 67,708,977 65,784,397 2,442,810 49.8% 48.4% 1.8%
Alabama 849,624 1,441,170 32,488 36.6% 62.0% 1.4%
Alaska 153,778 189,951 15,801 42.8% 52.8% 4.4%
Arizona 1,672,143 1,661,686 53,497 49.4% 49.1% 1.6%
Arkansas 423,932 760,647 34,490 34.8% 62.4% 2.8%
California 11,110,250 6,006,429 384,192 63.5% 34.3% 2.2%
Colorado 1,804,352 1,364,607 87,993 55.4% 41.9% 2.7%
Connecticut 1,080,680 715,291 28,302 59.2% 39.2% 1.6%
Delaware 296,268 200,603 7,475 58.7% 39.8% 1.5%
District of Columbia 317,323 18,586 8,447 92.1% 5.4% 2.5%
Florida 5,297,045 5,668,731 101,680 47.9% 51.2% 0.9%
Georgia 2,473,633 2,461,854 62,229 49.5% 49.3% 1.2%
Hawaii 366,130 196,864 11,475 63.7% 34.3% 2.0%
Idaho 287,021 554,119 26,091 33.1% 63.9% 3.0%
Illinois 3,471,915 2,446,891 114,938 57.5% 40.6% 1.9%
Indiana 1,242,413 1,729,516 61,183 41.0% 57.0% 2.0%
Iowa 759,061 897,672 34,138 44.9% 53.1% 2.0%
Kansas 570,323 771,406 30,574 41.6% 56.2% 2.2%
Kentucky 772,474 1,326,646 37,648 36.2% 62.1% 1.8%
Louisiana 856,034 1,255,776 36,252 39.9% 58.5% 1.7%
Maine 435,072 360,737 23,652 53.1% 44.0% 2.9%
Maine 1st District 266,376 164,045 12,691 60.1% 37.0% 2.9%
Maine 2nd District 168,696 196,692 10,961 44.8% 52.3% 2.9%
Maryland 1,985,023 976,414 75,593 65.4% 32.2% 2.5%
Massachusetts 2,382,202 1,167,202 81,998 65.6% 32.1% 2.3%
Michigan 2,804,040 2,649,852 85,410 50.6% 47.8% 1.5%
Minnesota 1,717,049 1,484,048 76,023 52.4% 45.3% 2.3%
Mississippi 539,508 756,789 17,597 41.1% 57.6% 1.3%
Missouri 1,253,014 1,718,736 54,212 41.4% 56.8% 1.8%
Montana 244,786 343,602 15,286 40.5% 56.9% 2.5%
Nebraska 374,583 556,846 20,283 39.4% 58.5% 2.1%
Nebraska 1st District 132,261 180,290 7,495 41.3% 56.3% 2.3%
Nebraska 2nd District 176,468 154,377 6,909 52.2% 45.7% 2.0%
Nebraska 3rd District 65,854 222,179 5,879 22.4% 75.6% 2.0%
Nevada 703,486 669,890 32,000 50.1% 47.7% 2.3%
New Hampshire 424,921 365,654 15,607 52.7% 45.4% 1.9%
New Jersey 2,608,335 1,883,274 57,744 57.3% 41.4% 1.3%
New Mexico 501,614 401,894 20,457 54.3% 43.5% 2.2%
New York 5,241,957 3,250,075 119,043 60.9% 37.7% 1.4%
North Carolina 2,684,292 2,758,775 81,737 48.6% 49.9% 1.5%
North Dakota 114,902 235,595 11,322 31.8% 65.1% 3.1%
Ohio 2,679,165 3,154,834 88,203 45.2% 53.3% 1.5%
Oklahoma 503,890 1,020,280 36,529 32.3% 65.4% 2.3%
Oregon 1,340,383 958,448 75,490 56.5% 40.4% 3.2%
Pennsylvania 3,459,923 3,378,263 79,397 50.0% 48.8% 1.1%
Rhode Island 307,486 199,922 10,349 59.4% 38.6% 2.0%
South Carolina 1,091,541 1,385,103 36,685 43.4% 55.1% 1.5%
South Dakota 150,471 261,043 11,095 35.6% 61.8% 2.6%
Tennessee 1,143,711 1,852,475 57,665 37.5% 60.7% 1.9%
Texas 5,259,126 5,890,347 165,583 46.5% 52.1% 1.5%
Utah 560,282 865,140 62,867 37.6% 58.1% 4.2%
Vermont 242,820 112,704 11,904 66.1% 30.7% 3.2%
Virginia 2,413,568 1,962,430 84,526 54.1% 44.0% 1.9%
Washington 2,369,612 1,584,651 133,368 58.0% 38.8% 3.3%
West Virginia 235,984 545,382 13,286 29.7% 68.6% 1.7%
Wisconsin 1,630,866 1,610,184 56,991 49.4% 48.8% 1.7%
Wyoming 73,491 193,559 9,715 26.6% 69.9% 3.5%

 

Major Milestones in the Campaign

Chronology of Events

South Carolina Primary

Nevada Caucus

Iowa Caucus

New Hampshire Primary

Primary Schedule

 

 

Des Mones Iowa Poll