Trump is gone- The Impact on Israel
Joseph R. Biden, Jr., is the 46 the President of the United States. On the morning of Biden's inauguration, Gideon Saar, the right-winger considered by many the most likely contender to defeat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel's upcoming election, did not tweet a welcome to President Biden. Rather, Saar tweeted: "The People of Israel will forever be grateful to the 45th President of the United States, Donald J. Trump." One would be tempted to describe that act to naïveté on the part of the Israeli candidate. However, Saar knew what he was doing. Sa'ar was appealing to his right-wing base, where Trump remains extremely popular.
There are only two countries outside the United States where President Trump was held in high esteem by the majority of the population — the Philippines, and Israel. Israelis, especially those on the right-wing of the political spectrum, supported Trump fully. An argument could be made that many of Trump's actions regarding Israel might have negative long-term consequences, but the simple truth is that Israelis felt Trump truly loved Israel, and as one Israeli said to me — "If you love me, I will love you back."
Trump's defeat came as a big shock to many Israelis. Most non-American-born Israelis I know were convinced Trump would win re-election. Like Trump's American supporters, many believed the election was stolen, and still hoped that somehow that wrong would be righted and Trump would remain President. Prime Minister Netanyahu is the man in this country who put the most on the line in the interest of his friendship with Trump.
Towards the end of the 2020 campaign, Netanyahu understood there was a genuine chance Trump would lose. When Trump tried to get Netanyahu to say something negative about now President Biden, Netanyahu refused. While Netanyahu did wait a few days after the election was called to congratulate Biden, he did not wait too long. Nevertheless, right-wing commentators in Israel continued to parrot the Trump line for weeks, continuing to believe Trump would prevail and remain President.
Over the long two months that followed the election, some Trump supporters in Israel began to realize he might not have a path forward. Still, it took until the Capitol insurrection on January 6th, and the subsequent affirmation of the electoral vote, for some of Israel's die-hard Trump supporters to understand the Trump Administration was over.
Prime Minister Netanyahu kept a picture of himself with Trump as his Twitter banner until last week. While Israelis have finally accepted that Biden has become President, many still do not understand how toxic Trump became after January 6th. Yisrael Katz, Israel's Finance Minister, stated, "I won't change my mind, the new train station at the Western Wall will be named after Donald Trump. We're talking about a huge friend of Israel, who first recognized Jerusalem."
Heather Stone, Chairperson of Democrats Abroad in Israel, accurately summed up the position of many Israeli leaders:
The disturbing scenes we all watched unfold on the Capitol on January 6th must have shaken the Israeli political class — even if only a few such politicians (i.e., Stav Shaffir) were bold enough to express those feelings honestly. For four years, Israeli leaders treated Trump as a godsend to Israel because his transactional nature yielded what they deemed as positive results; while they ignored the blaring warnings and signs that his autocratic tendencies were anti-democratic, and therefore bad for America, bad for democratic nations, bad for Israel, and bad for the world.
The Center-left opposition parties did partially understand where Israel's close identification with Trump had led. As the Capitol was being ransacked, the leader of the opposition, Yair Lapid tweeted:
"I'm deeply saddened and shocked by the images from the United States. My thoughts are with all my friends in Washington tonight. We hope to see order restored and the transition of power completed. America needs to go back to being a role model for democracies across the world."
When I asked Lapid what effect he thought the fact that Netanyahu was so closely identified with President Trump would have going forward, he said to me,
"It was wrong to constantly and blatantly fight with the Democratic Party and throw away our bipartisan standing. The Democrats now control the White House; the Senate and the House and too many of them are angry at Israel, it was entirely preventable."
The Left-wing, Meretz Party leader, Nitzan Hurwitz, tweeted on inauguration morning:
"As an Israeli, as a Jew, and as a person living on this earth, I am full of happiness thanks for the victory of Biden, an honest, thoughtful, and knowledgable person, whose heart is in the right place. His [Biden's] plans at the start of his presidency, especially his economic plans, provide us with hope. It is a great change after Trump's disaster. Good luck, Uncle Joe, leader of the free world."
Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Reuven "Ruvi" Rivlin were quick to congratulate President Biden and Vice President Harris, on their inauguration. During the last Israeli election, Netanyahu had large banners of himself with President Trump placed on buildings around the country. Opponents of Netanyahu have brought a few of those images back, this time, to attack Netanyahu by saying, "Look who you were hanging out with."
President Biden has a long history of being a friend of Israel. However, unlike the Israeli right-wing, Biden believes that only the two-state solution can ensure Israel's future as a Jewish and Democratic State. As such, as long as there is a right-wing government in power in Israel, there will be friction in the Israeli/American relationship. That being said, the Biden Administration has no illusion that a peace agreement between Israel and Palestinians can be negotiated any time soon, and therefore, the matter is low down on their list of priorities.
Unfortunately, one issue cannot be ignored — i.e. what to do about Iran and the nuclear deal from which the Trump administration walked away. Trump's decision to exit the Iranian JCPOA agreement was popular in Israel, and was urged by Netanyahu. However, there has been no broad realization in Israel that Trump's Iran policy failed, as maximum economic pressure has been unable to stop the Iranians from moving forward with their nuclear program.
The Biden Administration has made it clear the US must rejoin the JCPOA agreement, under the right conditions, in order to stop the Iranian program; a step Netanyahu opposes. During the Obama years, Netanyahu chose to confront the US administration, and as a result, lost the opportunity to influence the final agreement with Iran. The Israeli government is yet to decide on a policy towards the Biden Administration and the attempt to rejoin JCOPA.
The next Israeli election is in two months, and very little will happen before then to change the relationship between Israel and America. Trump's defeat will undoubtedly influence this election. How much? And in what ways? … Only time will tell.
