The Jewish New Year begins Sunday night. It is now nine months since Israelis began living under an interim government and there are no clear signs of when a new government will be sworn-in. While the elections were a defeat for Prime Minister Netanyahu, the opposition's road to forming a coalition is nearly impossible to navigate. The Blue and White Party made it clear that their goal was a coalition government with the Likud Party -- with one caveat:  a Likud party led by anyone but Netanyahu; the Netanyahu who is under the cloud of  imminent indictment.  

Their hope was -- when it became clear that Netanyahu had lost -- there might be a palace revolt and he would be replaced as Likud's leader. That was certainly the hope of Avigdor Lieberman, who heads the Yisrael Beiteinu party and ran on the platform of establishing a liberal coalition government made up of only the two main parties -- without including the religious parties. This would an Israeli government that would be able to deal with many of the issues surrounding religion and state, issues that most Israelis have indicated they want addressed. In a tactically brilliant move within hours of the election results being published, Prime Minister Netanyahu signed all the members of his coalition (his party and three religious parties) to an agreement that none of them would negotiate or act independently of the others, thus giving him a solid bloc of 55 supporters. In doing so, Netanyahu accomplished two goals: first it made him the larger, more coherent bloc; second, it made it less likely that one of the religious parties might be enticed to jump ship and join a government led by Blue and White’s Benny Gantz.  

The role of the President in Israel is almost entirely ceremonial -- with one exception: he gets to determine who is tasked first with the job of forming a new government. The law says that, after consulting with all the parties, the President determines who has the best chances of forming a new government. Neither party wanted to go first this time, since the prevailing wisdom is that the first party to negotiate will fail and then the President will give the mandate to the second party. With the looming specter of a third election in one year, that second party would have an easier time convincing one or more additional parties to change their position and enter into a coalition.  

The President met with all the parties and in a break with tradition dating back to 1992 when the Arab Joint List Yitzhak Rabin, the Arab parties told President Rivlin that they preferred Gantz. Avigdor Lieberman recommended no one, and thus Gantz had 57 seats compared to 55 for Netanyahu. Then, something strange occurred in the Balad faction ( the most radical part of the Arab Joint List). Overnight, they  announced that they were not part of the bloc of 13 that had recommended Gantz, thus giving Gantz 54 to Netanyahu’s 55. The Head of the Joint List claimed it was done at Blue and White’s request, but this was denied.  

President Rivlin tried to get Netanyahu and Gantz to agree to a coalition government, one that he believes is the only solution. He set up two meetings between the rivals. The President also brought to the table an interesting proposal that the Israeli law be changed to give the position of deputy Prime Minister real authority and to allow the Prime Minister to take a leave of absence for an indefinite period, during which time the Deputy Prime Minister would be the Acting Prime Minister holding all the powers of Prime Minister. This way, if and when Netanyahu gets indicted --- something expected within the next two months --  Gantz would become Acting Prime Minister. At the end of the legal process (which could take 2-3 years) if Netanyahu is found not guilty he could return to office.  

While Gantz expressed an interest in exploring this option, the other heads of the party were very wary of proposal fearing that if you left Netanyahu in power he would find a way to manipulate the agreement and remain in power indefinitely. In addition, while Blue and White wanted a coalition with the Likud, Netanyahu was standing by his promise to the religious parties and Blue and White was clearly not interested in being part of a larger Likud coalition. Thus, in a solemn ceremony on Wednesday night, President Rivin announced that since Netanyahu had the larger number of recommenders he was being given the responsibility to form the government first. Netanyahu then gave a sober speech warning that the people of Israel need to be prepared for the possibility of a coming war with Iran, thus making it imperative that the country needs a coalition government (interestingly, this part of Netanyahu’s speech received almost no media coverage). Netanyahu also acknowledged that the chances of his forming a government in the first round were slim and if he failed, he would quickly return the mandate to the President so as not to waste time.

In normal circumstances, that might seem to be a very admirable thing do but Netanyahu has a legal clock ticking as well as a political one. On October 2, Netanyahu lawyers meet with the Attorney General in a formal procedure where they get to argue their case as to why their client should not be indicted. In a rather strange development, his attorneys presented no evidence in their written brief to the attorney general. Then, on Thursday, Netanyahu went on air and requested that the hearing where only his lawyers are heard be open to the public and carried live. The Attorney General who has to decide his fate was outraged at the request and responded in the strongest terms. 
The Attorney General is under no legal requirement to make the final decision on whether to indict quickly and it was initially believed that decision would be made in December. But there is a growing consensus that unless Netanyahu’s lawyers bring startling new evidence, the Attorney General’s decision will come quickly. All of which is to say that Netanyahu would like to either form a government or call new elections before he is indicted, since an indictment would weaken his hand and might preclude President Rivlin from giving him the mandate in a future scenario 

So where does this all leave Israel? There are four possible scenarios:
Netanyahu manages to convince Lieberman to join his coalition with the religious parties, something he has repeatedly vowed not to do.  Or, he convinces Amir Peretz’s Labor Party to join the coalition. Both scenarios are possible but unlikely.

Gantz and Netanyahu agree to a version of the Rivlin plan and Netanyahu agrees to a coalition without the religious parties

Gantz manages to form a short-term minority government with support from the Joint List (Arab Israelis) from the outside, (something that Lieberman opposes) long enough for the Likud to replace Netanyahu after he is indicted.

Finally, another election could be held, which is something everyone claims not to want but what many observers believe Prime Minister Netanyahu wants, since that would leave him as interim Prime Minister for at least another four months and who knows what might happen during that time.

Israel is competing with the United States and Great Britain for the title of the democracy with the most acute political crisis. At the moment it's not clear who should be crowned the winner.

 

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