A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman

April 13, 2008 Gaza and Power-What's Up In Syria?

Hamas continues to try to create a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, claiming that there is no gas and no diesel, and that the power plants will soon be forced to shut down. The IDF claims there currently is enough fuel in Gaza. It will of course run out if the fuel terminal is not reopened.. AND it is certain that in a few days the reason the fuel plant closed will fade from memory. Hamas cannot allow the status quo to continue. However, in the same way that none of Israelís choices are good, neither are the choices for Hamas. Today, Hamas leader, Khaled Meshal, was forced to state that Hamas is not interested in upsetting the governments of the Arab states. Egypt continues to fear that Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood are working together.

Something is up in Syria and no one is certain exactly what. Reports are that the head of Syrian Intelligence is under house arrest. He is Assadís brother-in law. As a result, Assadís sister is said to have fled the country. Reports claim that Assadís brother-in law allowed Hamasí second in command, Mugineyah, to be killed in Damascus, as part of a deal with western intelligence agencies. All of this is largely speculation, though things are clearly not stable in Syria.

The analysis of last week's defense drill is underway. The drill was designed to simulate a war in which the Israel is under large-scale missile attack. To most observers this is a realistic scenario. Syria and Iran have built thousands of missiles. Iran does not have enough long-range missiles to engage in conventional missile warfare, however, it has now given Hezbollah 20,000 missiles, including missiles with large warheads, and with accurate guidance systems. While Israel has been beefing up its defensive preparations, its basic strategy remains unchanged, while the tactics for doing so have. The IDF continues to base it plans on taking the fight to the enemyñ this time with the rapid insertion of ground troops into the areas firing missiles at Israel, rather than relying on the Air Force. Letís hope it never come to this, since a war under these scenarios will be very costly.

The US CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) has requested that anyone who goes to Israel make sure that they have had up-to-date measles shots. Usually the Israeli government follows the CDC, but according to Israeli news reports, there are not enough vaccines in Israel to give it every Israeli.