A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman

April 7, 2008 Real Concern on Syria

Tensions with Syria appear very real. It seems that the details of Israel’s raid on Syria are being released at some Congressional hearing, expected to take place in mid- April.  The U.S. government believes it is important to release that information for reasons of its own.  The stated reason is to put additional pressure on North Korea.  It’s interesting that the Israeli news media now routinely refers to the incident as an attack on the Syrian "koor", meaning reactor.

According to Israeli news reports, Prime Minister Olmert has not opposed releasing the info, while the defense establishment is concerned that publicizing details of the attack might force Assad’s hand in taking some action.  He has an open account when it comes to the destruction of the reactor and the killing of Mughnieh in Damascus.  Military analysts believe that Israel’s deterrent against Syria remains in place even after the Lebanon War.  That war they believe showed the limitation of Israeli’s power when fighting asymmetric warfare against largely irregular fighters, but not when fighting a conventional battle against Syria.  The concern, however, is that Assad will find himself boxed in by domestic pressure and he might miscalculate and attack. 

Israel is running a very large-scale civil defense drill this week.  In the midst of the drill, Infrastructure Minister, Fuad Ben Eliezer, warned Iran that an attack on Israel would result in the destruction of the Iranian state.

Demonstrations and rioting are expanding in Egypt to protest the rapid rise in price for bread.  The demonstrations could get out of hand.  With the rising world-wide price of wheat and other food staples, the Mubark regime is facing a growing economic challenge.