A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman

December 18, 2008--Hamas Annouce End of Ceasefire, Kadima Primary Results?

Hamas officially announced tonight that the Tahadia (ceasefire) has officially ended. What will come next dominates the news. The last few days have seen a constant slow rain of Qassams. The view is that Hamas really does not want to end the ceasefire. It would like to change the rules of the game. It wants to force Israel to keep the entrances of Gaza open and not to use this as leverage. The Islamic Jihad seems intent on starting hostilities again. It would be in Hamas's interest to stop them, however, one thing we have seen over the years is that what is logical does not always occur. At the moment, Israel is waiting to see what happens. It does not want to be the one who is seen by the world as responsible for ending the ceasefire.

Kadima held its primary elections yesterday. It was the first primary election that went off technically without a hitch. It would seem the Kadima primaries selected an electable list, with four women in the top 10 spots. The biggest winners in the primary were Dalia Itzik and Tzahi Hanegbi. Itzhik joined Kadima from Labor and Hanegbi from the Likud. Kadima's fear that all unknown people may have been selected as a result of all sorts of underhanded deals simply did not occur.

The latest poll released today shows the gap between Kadima and Likud narrowing. If that trends continues, Kadima will strengthen itself as additional Labor supporters may decide to vote for the party, if it has a chance of beating Likud.