February 4, 2011 The Future of Egypt- The New Chief of Staff Fiasco

The week has come to an end. The protests continue, but Mubarak remains in Egypt. There is some sense that the most dangerous moments for the regime might have passed. It's not clear. Without going too far out on a limb, I believe a deal will be reached for Mubarak to depart, while maintaining much of the current government structure. I believe the departure of Mubarak will remove much of the steam from the protesters. Egypt will not be the same, and there is a real threat of a fundamentalist take-over. On the other hand, I think too many Egyptians have seen what fundamentalism looks like and they may not like it. Certainly the Egyptian Army, who have seen what the Islamists did to the "professional soldiers" of the Iranian military are not going to want to be a part of an Islamist state. I therefore think that the fundamentalist threat may be overstated. I certainly could be wrong, but I am at least marginally optimistic that the future of Egypt may not have Mubarak, nor any Muslim Brotherhood in leadership position.

Israel continues to be obsessed with the soap opera story of the appointment of a new Chief of Staff. Without going into the details again, none of what I have seen gives me a sense that the defense establishment is in good hands. If they are making military decisions the same way they are making personnel decisions, Israel could be in trouble.

Read my weekly podcast- this week on Egypt